The Oracle is the Starting 11 prediction engine. Before every match it covers, it names the eleven players it expects to start, hours before any team news. Its picks appear across Dugout's predicted lineups articles, and every prediction is scored against the real starting XI once the teams are announced.
How it works
The Oracle starts from what managers actually do: most starting lineups change less than fans expect, so the last XI a team fielded is the spine of the next one. On top of that it tracks injuries and suspensions from our data provider, availability flags, transfers and squad changes, and it removes anyone who cannot play. When news lands between its first call and kickoff, it revises the XI and says what changed. It never guesses at rumours and it never invents information: every pick traces back to something in the data.
A green marker on the pitch means a change from the team's last lineup. An amber marker means the Oracle has named a player who carries a doubt flag in the feed. Every post is read by a human editor before it goes out.
How accurate is it?
This is the live record: every prediction the Oracle has made since going live, scored against the real starting XI. It updates automatically as fixtures resolve.
77 scored predictions are excluded from this record. In July 2026 we found that our data provider had historically supplied some fixtures with the two teams' lineups swapped. Predictions built on that corrupted history measured bad data, not the model, so they are left out. The underlying lineups have since been repaired.
| Competition | XIs scored | Avg of 11 | Perfect | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Conference League | 209 | 8 | 11 | 97 |
| UEFA Europa League | 57 | 8.32 | 5 | 32 |
| UEFA Champions League | 48 | 8.98 | 4 | 29 |
| Eredivisie | 35 | 7.89 | 2 | 12 |
| World Cup | 32 | 9.19 | 6 | 23 |
| Championship | 24 | 6.38 | 0 | 4 |
| Scottish Premiership | 23 | 7.09 | 1 | 7 |
| League One | 20 | 6.5 | 0 | 4 |
| Süper Lig | 17 | 5.53 | 0 | 0 |
| La Liga | 13 | 6.69 | 0 | 3 |
| League Two | 9 | 5.56 | 0 | 1 |
Where it is strong, and where it is guessing
The Oracle builds on the last XI a team actually named, so how recently that team played decides how much it has to work with. Splitting the same record by that measure is the honest version of the headline number above. A first match of a season is the hard case, and it is flagged as such before kickoff rather than explained away afterwards.
| Starting point | XIs scored | Avg of 11 | Perfect | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Settled | 207 | 8.64 | 13 | 124 |
| Unsettled | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Cold start | 122 | 6.16 | 1 | 16 |
Settled: Built on an XI this team fielded within the last two weeks, which is where the Oracle is at its most accurate. Unsettled: The most recent XI we have is several weeks old, so expect more changes than usual. Cold start: There is no recent XI to build on, usually a new season or a first competitive match. This is the Oracle at its weakest and it says so on purpose.
Last 10 scored
Each call with the note the Oracle published before kickoff, who it ruled out and why, and what it scored once the real XI landed. Nothing here is written after the result.
- 10/11 Bradford Sheffield Wednesday v Bradford 20 Aug formation ✓ Settled
Bradford field an unchanged 3-5-2 on paper, but revision 4 shows five replacements: J. McCracken, M. Gillesphey, C. Connolly, W. Swan, and J. Beesley are all in versus the previous prediction.
Ruled out: J. Hilton (out on loan), L. Sibley (left the club), H. Ashby (left the club), P. Mullin (left the club)
- 7/11 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday v Bradford 20 Aug Settled
Sheffield Wednesday carry 11 unchanged into this fixture. T. Onyango replaces S. Fusire in a 3-4-2-1 shape.
Ruled out: N. Chalobah (left the club), D. Iorfa (out on loan), J. Yates (out on loan), O. Kobacki (out on loan)
- 10/11 Alaves Rayo Vallecano v Alaves 20 Aug formation ✓ Settled
Aitor Mañas is out after leaving the squad. Alaves keep faith with a 4-4-2 shape away at Rayo Vallecano, recalling L. Boyé as the sole change from the previous forecast.
Ruled out: Jon Guridi (left the club), Víctor Parada (out on loan), Jon Pacheco (left the club), I. Diabate (out on loan)
- 7/11 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano v Alaves 20 Aug Settled
A. Batalla returns in goal as Rayo Vallecano name an unchanged 11 from their last XI. Isi Palazón and Jorge de Frutos slot back in, keeping the club in a 4-2-3-1 shape for the home fixture.
Ruled out: A. Mumin (out on loan), Luiz Felipe (out on loan), Ilias Akhomach (left the club), Carlos Martín (left the club)
- 7/11 SC Braga SC Braga v Austria Vienna 20 Aug formation ✓ Settled
SC Braga field all 11 unchanged at home, staying in a 4-3-3 shape.
Ruled out: D. Huseinbašić (out on loan), L. Horníček (left the club)
- 10/11 Dinamo Tirana Dinamo Tirana v Pafos 20 Aug Settled
Dinamo Tirana field all 11 unchanged at home, staying in a 4-2-3-1 shape.
Ruled out: Adamu Ibrahim Alhassan (out on loan), Jorgo Meksi (out on loan), B. Zabergja (not in the current squad), A. Doci (out on loan)
- 8/11 Getafe Getafe v FK Partizan 20 Aug formation ✓ Settled
O. Mangala replaces Javi Muñoz in Getafe's third revision; the 3-5-2 stays otherwise unchanged as the club hosts this UEFA Conference League fixture.
Ruled out: Juan Iglesias (left the club), A. Kamara (out on loan), Coba (left the club), Adrian Liso (out on loan)
- 9/11 Raków Częstochowa HNK Hajduk Split v Raków Częstochowa 20 Aug formation ✓ Settled
Raków Częstochowa field all 11 unchanged away to HNK Hajduk Split, staying in a 3-4-3 shape.
Ruled out: A. Gospodinov (not in the current squad), S. Kovachev (not in the current squad), G. Nikolov (not in the current squad), M. Yusuf (not in the current squad)
- 6/11 HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split v Raków Częstochowa 20 Aug formation ✓ Settled
M. Acapandié and A. Sutalo come in for Š. Hrgović and R. Brajković. HNK Hajduk Split field all 11 unchanged in 4-2-3-1 from the last call.
Ruled out: Y. Benrahou (not in the current squad), A. Kalik (out on loan), Z. Šarlija (out on loan), A. Rebić (out on loan)
- 5/11 KuPS Shamrock Rovers v KuPS 20 Aug formation ✓ Cold start
KuPS field 10 settled players and restore A. Heinonen, after O. Ruoppi left the club. The away side operate a 4-2-3-1 formation.
Ruled out: P. Ricardo (not in the current squad), I. Cisse (not in the current squad), A. Hakala (not in the current squad), J. Oksanen (left the club)
League football rotates more than tournament football, so expectations should shift with the competition. Before going live the Oracle was tested against the full second half of the 2025-26 season in seven leagues, scoring each prediction with the same 0 to 11 measure the Starting 11 leaderboard uses. Those baselines:
| League | Correct starters (of 11) |
|---|---|
| Eredivisie | 9.1 |
| Premier League | 8.7 |
| Bundesliga | 8.5 |
| Ligue 1 | 8.3 |
| Championship | 8.3 |
| Serie A | 8.2 |
| La Liga | 7.9 |
The spread is rotation culture: Dutch sides barely change, La Liga rotates hardest. For reference, fans predicting on Starting 11 during the World Cup have averaged just under 7 of 11.
What it cannot see
The Oracle misses what nobody can know from data alone: a surprise tactical shift, a manager's hunch, a knock that never reached the feed. When it is wrong, the score stays on the record. That is the deal: it publishes its accuracy openly, hits and misses alike.
Beat it
The Oracle sets the bar, not the ceiling. Fans who watch one team closely beat it on their club all the time. Predict your XI on Starting 11 and see how you score against it.